Analysis Financial-Rahmawati

RAHMAWATI

361 10 004

3A-D3

ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE BANKCRUPCY PREDICTION

 USING THE Z-SCORE MODELS

A.      UNDERSTANDING FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

According Soemarso (2006:430), financial statements is the relationship between the numbers in the financial statements with other numbers that have meaning or be able to explain the direction of change (trend) of a phenomenon.

B.      OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

                Financial statement analysis aims to determine whether the financial condition, results of operations of the company's financial progress satisfactory or unsatisfactory. Analysis is performed by measuring the relationship between the elements of financial statements and how to change elements of it from year to year and to determine the direction of development

C.      BANKCRUPTCY ANALYSIS MODELS

1.  Univariate models
2. Multivariate models :

•       Z-Score

•       Logit

D.      FINANCIAL STATEMENTS REQUIRED

1. Balance Sheet
2. Profit and Loss

E.       Z-SCORE

From the research, Altman found five financial ratios are considered the best differentiate healthy and bankrupt firms. These five financial ratios are:

1.       Net working capital to total assets (net working capital to total assets = X1)

For example:  PT TIMAH, TBK

              

2.       Retained earnings to total assets (retained earnings to total assets = X2)

            

3.       Earnings before interest and taxes to total assets (earnings before interest and taxes to total assets = X3)

4.       Market value of equity to book value of liabilities (market value of equity to book value of liabilities = X4)

5. Sales to total assets (sales to total assets = X5)

Based on the financial ratios as predictor variables found little predictive model bankrupt opportunities

F.       RESULTS ANALYSIS

Calculation of Z-Score Bankruptcy Prediction Company

 (Sample PT Timah Tbk)

`       The table above shows that in 2004, the company is likely to go bankrupt in 2005 while the minor is in a gray area that is more likely the chance of a small bankrupt.

G.     CONCLUSION

Analysis of a company's chances of bankruptcy is considered important for a company. This analysis not only for healthy companies alone but for companies that are considered healthy. This analysis was conducted as a follow preventive for healthy companies and is curative for companies that are not healthy.